Unleash the Beast

The Athletic's sicko in chief Dane Brugler has done it again, releasing his comprehensive prospect guide ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Brugler has worked as an analyst for NFL Draft Scout, CBS Sports, and now The New York Times' premium sports outlet, The Athletic, developing these deranged deep dives. And we thank him for it. Somewhere along the line, each edition became known as, "The Beast."

This year's Beast is the biggest yet. It runs 308 pages and features scouting reports on 22 quarterbacks, 34 running backs, 56 wide receivers, and 28 tight ends—good for 140 prospects across 107 pages (just under 35% of the thing).

The rest is filled with linemen, tackles, and all sorts of players to sate your IDP league needs, but for the purposes of this article, I'll be focusing on the quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.

Unleash the Beast

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I scoured more than 1,300 pages from the 2019-2023 Beasts to save you a bundle of time, and to distill the intel—Combine data, college production, advanced stats, and narrative nuggets—into the most actionable fantasy advice for your upcoming dynasty rookie drafts and best ball tournaments.

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Let's start with the good news: All eight quarterbacks who received a 1st Round grade in the 2019-2022 Beasts were, in fact, selected in the first round of the NFL Draft:

• Kyler Murray
• Dwayne Haskins
• Joe Burow
• Tua Tagovailoa
• Trevor Lawrence
• Zach Wilson
• Trey Lance
• Justin Fields

The top four quarterbacks in this year's Beast—Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Will Levis—all earned a 1st Round grade, so we can reasonably expect they'll hear their names called in KCMO on opening night.

Things get a little muddy when Brugler assigns a 1st-2nd Round grade to a QB prospect. Among those in previous Beasts: Drew Lock, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, and Malik Willis. No quarterback received a 1st-2nd Round grade in the 2023 Beast.

Hendon Hooker received a 2nd Round grade, one of only three quarterbacks to earn that mark in the past five Beasts (the others were Daniel Jones and Desmond Ridder).

Once the grades drift past the 2nd round, the Jalen Hurtses (3rd-4th Round grade) are few and far between:

• 2nd-3rd Round: Matt Corral, Sam Howell
• 3rd Round: Jake Fromm, Davis Mills
• 3rd-4th Round: Jalen Hurts
• 4th Round: Jarrett Stidham, Kyle Trask
• 5th Round: Bailey Zappe
• 6th-7th Round: Gardner Minshew
• Priority Free Agent: Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, Brock Purdy

So, let's focus on the 2023 1st Round prospects, shall we!

Bryce MF'n Young

"Bryce Young, an only child, was born in Wynnewood, Pa. (just outside of Philadelphia) at Lankenau Hospital (the same hospital where Kobe Bryant was born)."

Dane Brugler knows how to make an entrance, folks! Here are some other nuggets:

• Bryce Young started working with a quarterback coach in sixth grade
• He went undefeated in eighth grade en route to a national championship
• He attended Mater Dei (alma mater of JT Daniels, Matt Barkley, Matt Leinart) for his junior and senior seasons, where he was the first African American QB in school history
• Since his sophomore year in high school, he has thrown a total of 27 interceptions. The most he's thrown in a single season? Seven, the year he won the Heisman (2021)
• He's never completed fewer than 64.5% of his passes during a full season as a starter (and had a 78% adjusted career completion percentage in the SEC)
• He graduated in three years with a degree in psychology (his father is a mental health therapist)
• He took his offensive linemen out for a steakhouse dinner every Wednesday during the season
• He's 1 of only 7 two-time team captains under Alabama HC Nick Saban
• He turns 22 in July

The Steph Curry of quarterback prospects, Bryce Young should be the 1.01 in the NFL Draft and superflex dynasty rookie drafts. He should probably be considered the 1.01 in most dynasty formats, regardless of your league settings.

Unless, of course, you're Bill Parcells, who made his feelings crystal clear to The Athletic's Dan Pompei:

"He better walk on water"

“I realize there have been a couple of good short quarterbacks, but most of the guys doing these jobs are not 5-10,” Parcells said. “So if you draft people that look like the people that are already doing these jobs, your percentage (of hitting on them) is greater than if you draft someone who doesn’t look like them.”

Oh, Bill.

Will Levis

We can assume Parcells is horned up for a quarterback like Will Levis.

For starters, Levis is 6'4", 230 lbs., huge biceps, shredded back, cannon of an arm, easily sunburnt.

If you'd prefer to dig deeper than Parcells, at least, here's a little background on the blue blood, courtesy of the Beast:

• Will Levis started working with a quarterback coach in eighth grade
• He attended a Nike camp in high school and won MVP, which put him on the recruiting map
• In three seasons at Penn State, he started two games and attempted 102 passes
• He graduated from Happy Valley in three years with a degree in finance and is (was?) working on his master's at Kentucky (also in finance)
• His mother played soccer at Yale; his grandfather coached at Yale; his uncle played football at Yale; his great-grandfather played at Cornell, coached at Brown

Whereas Bryce Young's "weaknesses" mainly stem from size concerns, Will Levis's seem a bit more troubling—particularly for a 5th-year senior at his second stop who will be 24 during his rookie season. Here are some of Levis's deficiencies outlined in the Beast:

• Average passing instincts, decision-making, and accuracy
• Holds the ball too long and takes some unnecessary sacks
• Predetermines throws

That last point—making up his mind before the snap—is emphasized in the below cut-up by NBC Sports' college guru Eric Froton, as well as this All-22 clip by The Athletic's film savant Ted Nguyen.

Now, alright. I don't just want to crap on Will Levis.

One of the bigger storylines this offseason has been the S2 Cognition test. Like pretty much everything else these days, opinions regarding the legitimacy of the test have devolved into knee-jerk binaries. It's either the latest, greatest advancement in quantifying intangibles or just some silly fad that's doomed to disappear.

The Washington Post published a story in March on the Nashville-based company, S2 Cognition, and The Athletic revealed Brock Purdy tested in the 93rd percentile—the highest of any QB prospect in the 2022 draft class.

Last week, highly respected veteran reporter Bob McGinn revealed the test results of some 2023 QB prospects:

Check out the big brain on Will!

For the uninitiated, the S2 Cognition test "measures how quickly and accurately athletes process information," according to the aforementioned Athletic profile.

As of this writing, roughly half of the NFL's front offices work with S2 and have access to test results. Although they are still fairly young as a company, S2 Cognition has determined their testing numbers correlate best with quarterback success, followed by safeties.

Neuroscientist and S2 Cognition co-founder Brandon Ally notes in The Athletic that they consider anything above the 80th percentile to be elite.

Looking at the 2023 QB results, that doesn't bode well for the Buckeye.

C.J. Stroud

For much of the pre-draft process, C.J. Stroud was considered to be a lock for the No. 1 overall pick and there was plenty of smoke to back it up.

New Panthers quarterbacks coach Josh McCown was caught on camera at Stroud's Pro Day telling him they'd have to find a court to play pick-up ball when Stroud lived in Charlotte.

A popular refrain back in March and early April pointed to new Panthers HC Frank Reich's history of working with taller quarterbacks.

But something changed. Was it the S2 Cognition test results? Was it the stories that trickled out about Stroud "not being an easy guy" to coach?

Let's see if the Beast has answers, starting with the background check:

• C.J. Stroud did not grow up with a private QB coach and faced a much slower recruitment process (only two years as a high school starter)
• He attended Elite 11 recruiting camps before his senior year, winning MVP at one of them, in July 2019, when he led his team to a 7-on-7 championship and met Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who recommended Stroud to the Ohio State coaching staff

Strengths:

• Doesn't mentally wilt in tough times
• Described as one of the "funniest" players on the team

Weaknesses:

• Guilty of locking and lingering on his preferred read
• Inconsistent ability to reset and figure out a plan B when the defense fools him

Stroud, the youngest of four, also faced considerable adversity as a child: His father is currently in prison and not eligible for parole until 2040. Because of this, Stroud and his family faced financial hardship and moved around constantly.

Compared with Bryce Young and Will Levis's upbringings, Stroud has more in common with Anthony Richardson, the other top QB prospect.

Anthony Richardson

From the Beast: Anthony Richardson was raised by his mother and other relatives, including his great uncle Tanka who introduced him to football when he was 4 years old. In 2013, the family moved to Gainesville and Richardson enrolled at a Magnet school where he studied Fire, EMS, and public safety. The school didn't offer athletics, so Richardson played at Eastside High—and his senior season was featured on Netflix in QB1: Beyond the Lights.

The NFL Combine darling, Anthony Richardson put up historic numbers for a quarterback prospect.

Relative Athletic Score, created by Kent Lee Platte, takes NFL Combine measurements and compares them against other prospects at the position dating back to 1987, scoring them on a relative scale from 1 to 10.

Out of 915 QB prospects, Anthony Richardson's perfect score... ranks first!

Perhaps the yin to Bryce Young's yang, there are no athletic concerns with Anthony Richardson—the concerns come from his relative inexperience on the football field:

• Prone to JV-level mistakes at times
• Deep accuracy runs hot and cold: pinpoint one play, missing by five yards the next

Bandit's QB Rankings

1. Bryce Young
2. Anthony Richardson
3. C.J. Stroud
4. Will Levis

Bryce Young's size does not concern me, nor does Anthony Richardson's perceived inaccuracy. From everything I've read about Young, he has an otherworldly pocket awareness and doesn't leave himself open to taking big hits. Richardson's weaknesses all seem correctable with coaching (throwing to the right shoulder; taking some mustard off on touch throws)—and he has all the physical tools to be among the league's best quarterbacks.

Both could be Top 10 fantasy quarterbacks in any format during their rookie contract, meaning both are more than worthy of the 1.01 and/or 1.02 in superflex drafts.

C.J. Stroud is more concerning. While the narrative around Anthony Richardson has insisted it will take time for him to adapt to the NFL level—that a franchise will have to be patient with his development—Stroud has consistently been painted as the most pro-ready prospect.

Reading through the Beast, watching clips shared by analysts, and now seeing his 18th percentile S2 Cognition score, I hope teams are willing to be patient with Stroud—that they're willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that he can be a Top 15 QB in the NFL by the end of his rookie contract.

I would like to see the Seahawks or Lions (currently slated to pick at 1.05 and 1.06, with Geno Smith and Jared Goff under center, respectively), take a shot on Stroud and let him learn under their veteran signal-caller.

Then there's Will Levis a.k.a. "Blue Jeans" (shoutout to Shane Manila).

Levis's 93rd percentile S2 Cognition score is the most impressive thing about his profile. Everything else gives me pause.

Let's say Levis's ceiling is Josh Allen. For starters, Josh Allen was 21 when drafted and 22 during his rookie season. Levis will be 24.

Josh Allen, as this lifelong Buffalo Bills fan can tell you, was very bad for the majority of his first two NFL seasons. One of his more “memorable” plays came during the Bills first playoff game in decades, when he decided to launch a deep shot to... a fullback... during crunch time in Houston.

Allen was markedly better during the 2020 season—and yet, this Bills fan still had his doubts. Could he perform when fans were back in the stands following the stadium-vacated COVID season? He had that "deer in the headlights" look during his first two years whenever the crowd got a little rambunctious, which seemed to lead Allen to make terrible decisions. (I wasn't the only one who shared this concern.)

But Joshy Boy persevered and is now widely regarded as one of the best QBs in the NFL—and definitely in fantasy football.

For Will Levis to have a similar career arc to Allen, he'll likely need a patient coaching staff and a QB whisperer à la Brian Daboll.

The Colts and Shane Steichen seem like an ideal fit, though Jim Irsay seems to be the least patient owner in the NFL.

Look, alright... I feel very confident Will Levis will get plenty of shots to be a franchise QB. My concerns are rooted in reading between the lines, assessing the total picture of "Will Levis, Quarterback Prospect."

The prevailing thought is we are bad at determining which quarterbacks will succeed and fail at the next level. But imagine, if you will, the prevailing thought had access to BanditVision™️.

The BanditVision is tingling, folks, and it's telling me Will Levis is closer to Zach Wilson as a potential leader than he is to Josh Allen.

It starts with the "silver spoon" upbringing. Both Levis and Young were privy to private quarterback coaching at a developmental age. The difference, at least to me, is that Bryce Young has absolutely made the most of those opportunities by exceededing expectations at every possible level.

Levis, on the other hand, enters the NFL Draft considered a fairly raw prospect even though he comes from an Ivy League family that afforded him similar opportunities to get ahead. (Levis grew up in Madison, Connecticut, which is better known as a summer getaway for New York City's power brokers than it is for producing athletic talent.)

Truly, the main reason it seems Levis will be a Top 10 pick is the sort of antiquated thinking Bill Parcells alluded to: Will Levis looks "like the people that are already doing these jobs" therefore he should be drafted over "someone who doesn't look like them."

Maybe I'm reading way, way too into things, and there are undoubtedly plenty of people who align with Parcells way of thinking.

I'm just not one of them, and I think there's a better chance Will Levis is working for Goldman Sachs in five years then there is of him cashing in on a second NFL contract.

Bijan Robinson is the only running back to receive a 1st Round grade in the Beast since Brugler started publishing the guide at The Athletic. That's great!

But he probably won't get 350 touches this season. He'll be lucky to get 300.

Since 2011, four running backs have tallied 350+ touches as a rookie: Doug Martin (2012), Ezekiel Elliott (2016), Saquon Barkley (2018), and Najee Harris (2021).

Notably, all four were taken in the first round of the NFL Draft: Martin (31st), Elliott (4th), Barkley (2nd), Harris (24th). Perhaps more notably, when each was drafted their presumed starting QB had one thing in common:

Josh Freeman had a bounce-back year with Tampa in 2012 before falling out of favor in 2013, leading to his release that October. Tony Romo was set to start for Dallas in 2016 before he broke his back in the preseason, leading to Dak Prescott's debut and a 13-3 Cowboys season. Romo would retire in April 2017.

After Eli Manning dumped the ball off to Saquon a ridiculous 91 times during the 2018 season, New York selected Daniel Jones 6th overall in 2019 and Eli was benched for the Dukie by Week 5.

And in 2021, the husk of Ben Roethlisberger took all of 2.26 seconds to get the ball out of his hands, the third quickest mark since 2011, per Pro Football Focus. (He also owns the top overall mark at 2.19 seconds in 2020.) Najee Harris caught 74 of those quick releases on an average of 6.3 targets per game. He then regressed to 41 receptions on 3.1 targets per game with rookie Kenny Pickett under center last season.

So, by the Bandit's count, those RB seasons were supported by two toolsy QBs on their rookie contracts and two swan-song vets: Josh Freeman was a 1st Round pick in 2009 (17th) and Dak Prescott was taken the same draft as Zeke, but in the 4th Round (135th), to back-up Tony Romo; Eli Manning was 37 years old, Ben Roethlisberger was 39.

Who fits the bill for Bijan to become the fifth rookie back in the past decade-plus to exceed 350 touches? Let's start with the quarterbacks still on their first contract.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins seem like an ideal fit, but they don't currently have a 1st Round pick due to owner Stephen Ross's shenanigans in trying to recruit Tom Brady and Sean Payton to South Florida. The Dolphins first selection is No. 51 and they have just four total picks, thanks to their Rams-esque YOLO'ing: trading premium picks for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb, and Jalen Ramsey, among others.

Bijan is expected to be long gone by No. 51 and the Dolphins likely don't have the capital to move up to get him.

How 'bout Philly? The Eagles invited Robinson on a Top 30 visit and have two 1st Round selections (Nos. 10 & 30). The Athletic's Bo Wulf published an article last week, though, titled, "Eagles worst-case scenario mock draft: Bijan Robinson, Emmanuel Forbes go in Round 1," in which Bo states using the No. 10 overall pick on a running back, a position "Philadelphia can coax high-level production out of from average talent would seem like a waste," especially with top prospects at OL, DT, EDGE, or Corner likely available.

He added: "What difference would matter more for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, the gap between [Bijan] as starting running back and a backfield duo of Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny, or the gap between, say, starting cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Zech McPhearson? Or Paris Johnson Jr. and Jack Driscoll? Or Jalen Carter and Marlon Tuipulotu?"

Although Jalen Hurts fits the Prescott-esque mold of the Bandit's 350+ touch premise, Bijan to the Eagles doesn't seem as likely with so much competition already on the roster and Hurts's own rushing dominance.

Of the remaining young ones who could possibly quarterback an historic Bijan Robinson rookie season, kids' menu aficionado and presumed Commies starter Sam Howell is perhaps the right Zoomer for the job.

During Howell's freshman and sophomore seasons at North Carolina, he was supported by the backfield tandem of Javonte Williams and Michael Carter. The two split the load with near-identical production: 150-160 carries for roughly 900 yards apiece in 2019, plus 15-20 receptions for ~150 yards.

Those figures increased to roughly 1,200 yards apiece on the ground in 2020, plus 25 receptions for ~270 yards.

Compare that to Texas these past two seasons with Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Bijan more than doubled Roschon's carries and rushing yards, receptions, and receiving yards in 2021, and nearly tripled his carries and rushing yards as well as receiving yards in 2022.

As you may have heard, the Commies will have new ownership heading into the 2023 season and Bijan could make for a very splashy, "changing of the guard" move with the No. 16 overall pick. A Misters Robinson backfield, anyone?

Ron Rivera's best Panthers teams were supported by a strong running game (DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Cam Newton) and a stronger defense, and new Commies OC Eric Bieniemy was the Chiefs' running backs coach when Kareem Hunt led the 2017 rookie class with 325 touches.

That seems like a more realistic ceiling for Bijan Robinson during his rookie season: 300+ total touches.

Then again, the list rookie backs to clear that benchmark over the past decade or so isn't all that encouraging:

• Leonard Fournette (2017)
• Eddie Lacy (2013)
• Alfred Morris (2012)
• Trent Richardson (also 2012)

That brings the list—with Hunt, Martin, Elliott, Barkley, and Harris—to nine total running backs exceeding 300+ total touches in their rookie season (since 2011).

But the Bandit wants to believe! C'mon, Bijan!

There must be at least one team out there... a team that could trade into the 1st Round...a team that could give Bijan 300+ touches as a rookie....

A little more than three years ago, the Los Angeles Rams cut Todd Gurley.

Less than two years before that, Gurley had signed a contract that included $45 million in guaranteed money.

When asked by the media about the release, head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead invoked a hobby that exploded in popularity during the pandemic: puzzling.

McVay: "A lot of the decisions we make aren't exclusively about a player, but you're talking about how to fit a big puzzle together with your team"

Snead: "In this case, I don't think it's a salary-cap issue, but in the puzzle, like I said, in putting together your short-term and long-term vision of trying to consistently contend what you pay players comes into play, obviously producing comes into play."

Zooming in on where the Rams find themselves this offseason, I can't help but think Bijan Robinson could be the missing piece to their 2023 puzzle.

Matthew Stafford firmly fits the "last-days veteran" QB profile that produced 350+ touch seasons from Zeke and Saquon, and the Rams weren't shy about Gurley's workload back when he was the engine of their offense.

The 10th pick in the 2015 draft by the then–St. Louis Rams, Gurley played in 13 games (starting 12) as a rookie and racked up 250 touches for more than 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns.

His next three seasons he totaled 321, 343, and 315 touches with 2,093 yards from scrimmage in 2017, and 21 total touchdowns in 2018.

If Bijan's still on the board as the 1st Round gets past, say, pick No. 20 on Thursday night, it wouldn't surprise the Bandit one iota if "Mr. Eff Them Picks" Les Snead decided to move up from the Rams highest pick in years (No. 36) to secure a running back that would help their near-retirement QB stay upright behind a shoddy offensive line.

What do we talk about, when we talk about beasts?

More often than not, we're talking about an absolute unit like DK Metcalf.

6'3", 228 lbs., 4.33 forty with a 1.48 ten-yard split

"Body beautiful" is the phrase Brugler used to headline Metcalf's strengths in the 2019 Beast. He was his No. 1 receiver that year, and he received a 1st-2nd Round grade (#27 overall).

The receivers at the top of the 2023 Beast are... not DK Metcalf.

• Jordan Addison: "Undersized with a slim frame and slight build"
• Jalin Hyatt: "Slender build"
• Zay Flowers: "Undersized with a short stature and smallish build"
• Josh Downs: "Very undersized and won't get much bigger"
• Tyler Scott: "Doesn't have ideal size, build or length"
• Marvin Mims Jr.: "Thinly-built frame"

You get the picture. The guys? They're small. But does that really matter anymore?

Out of 52 WRs in my sample from the 2019-2022 Beasts, just five Large WRs have finished a season in the Top 36 in PPR scoring.

What's a Large WR? Any guy that's over 6'2", 215 lbs. What some (many) in the fantasy space would deem an "alpha" wide receiver.

You'll notice Tee Higgins and Metcalf are doing much of the heavy lifting for the big dawgs, each producing a Top 36 PPR season since 2020. Higgins has improved each year, with PPR finishes of 24th overall (as a rookie), 20th, and 13th last season.

Metcalf's best year was back in 2020, his second year in the league, when he finished 6th overall in PPR scoring. That was the only Large Guy WR1 season from the sample set (receivers who entered the NFL in 2019 and beyond). Metcalf is trending in the opposite direction of Higgins in terms of season-long PPR scoring, with a 13th overall finish in 2021 and 16th overall finish in 2022.

Let's downsize our guys, just a little bit, for the sake of argument.

The medium-sized fellas: somewhere between 5'11" and 6'2" that weigh between 205-226 lbs. The "mighty-mite alphas," if you will. The #ThiccBoi Receivers.

You'll notice Gabriel Davis is included in this group as well. Is he a Large Guy or a Medium-sized Fella? I'll let you be the judge.

Not counting Gabe, we can add four more receivers to the list, bringing us to nine Medium- and Large-sized Guys that entered the league in 2019 (or afterward) that registered a Top 36 season in PPR scoring. The Medium- and Large-sized Guys have combined to produce only three WR1 seasons during the same span.

The heavy lifters from the Medium set? A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin. Brown had his best PPR season last year with Jalen Hurts, finishing 5th overall, and has steadily improved since his rookie year (23rd in 2019, 16th in 2020).

McLaurin has put up fringe-WR2 or better PPR seasons since he was drafted in 2019 and remains one of the more underrated players in just about any fantasy format. (Go trade for Terry.)

But anyway... y'all know where I'm going with this. Let's get to the Smallies.

The Smallies are under 6'0" and/or under 200 lbs., with a few exceptions. Justin Jefferson, for instance, is listed at just over 6'1" and 202 lbs. In the 2020 Beast, under the weaknesses section, Brugler called Jefferson a "lean-framed target [that] lacks ideal bulk," hence his inclusion in the Smallies.

Turning back to the 2021 Beast, Brugler begin's Ja'Marr Chase's weaknesses section by saying he has "only adequate height/length," and thus: he's a Smallie.

Overall, that's 14 Smallies that have registered Top 36 seasons since 2020. (Again, I'm just counting players that entered the league in 2019 or afterward.)

Five Smallies produced WR1 seasons in 2022. That's two more than the Medium- and Large-sized Guys have produced over the past three seasons combined. Overall, there have been 10 WR1 seasons by Smallies since 2020, with Jefferson accounting for three of them.

The seven Smallies to register a WR1 season since they entered the league in 2020? That'd be: Jefferson (3 times), Chase, Diontae Johnson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaylen Waddle, and DeVonta Smith.

So maybe, just maybe, the 2023 WR Class is much better than currently billed. Perhaps this "undersized" lot is exactly what the NFL needs, and at least a handful of the 2023 Smallies will be performing in fantasy sooner than later.

Here are the guys to keep an eye on during the Draft this weekend: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Marvin Mims Jr., Jayden Reed, Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, Tyler Scott, and Nathaniel "Tank" Dell.

Plus, keep an eye on the following Smallies to see if/when they're taken on Day 2 or Day 3: Charlie Jones, Tre Tucker, DeMario Douglas, Puka Nacua, Derius Davis, Ronnie Bell, and Xavier Hutchinson.